EURO/USD COT Report

Neutral – Lower Value Being Tested

Price and institutional positioning are not aligned.

Price Action

• Current Week (2026-03-03 → 2026-03-10): ▼ -0.68%
• Previous Week (2026-02-24 → 2026-03-03): ▼ -0.82%
• Pre-cutoff POC (2026-03-03 → 2026-03-10): 1.15
• Post-cutoff POC (2026-03-10 → 2026-03-13): 1.14
• Friday 3PM price (2026-03-13): ▼ 1.1436
• Friday vs Post-cutoff POC: +0.0036 (▲ +0.32%)

What's Changed?

• Open Interest — 1,118,597 (▲ +34,462 WoW)
• Asset Managers — 536,610 long / 143,264 short → +393,346 net (35.2% of OI)
• Net ▼ reduced by 7,360 contracts
• Leveraged Funds — 74,946 long / 113,696 short → -38,750 net (-3.5% of OI)
• Net ▼ reduced by 16,758 contracts
• Swap Dealers — 69,177 long / 470,670 short → -401,493 net (-35.9% of OI)
• Net ▲ increased by 32,433 contracts
• Other Reportables — 20,437 long / 14,463 short → +5,974 net (0.5% of OI)
• Net ▼ reduced by 324 contracts

Positioning Summary

• Asset Managers reduced net exposure during the reporting week.
• Leveraged Funds increased downside exposure, leading directional pressure.
• Dealer Intermediaries reduced inventory, signaling balance sheet contraction.
• Dealer spreading increased, indicating active internal hedging amid elevated trade flow.
• Open interest increased, indicating expanding market participation.

Risk Flags

• Downside price movement was led by leveraged fund short expansion.
• Post-cutoff trading accepted lower prices than the COT inventory range.
• Dealer inventory contraction suggests reduced liquidity support.