UST 10Y NOTE COT Report

Neutral – Lower Value Being Tested

Price and institutional positioning are not aligned.

Price Action

• Current Week (2026-03-03 → 2026-03-10): ▼ -0.47%
• Previous Week (2026-02-24 → 2026-03-03): ▼ -0.17%
• Pre-cutoff POC (2026-03-03 → 2026-03-10): 112.42
• Post-cutoff POC (2026-03-10 → 2026-03-13): 111.42
• Friday 3PM price (2026-03-13): ▼ 111.4219
• Friday vs Post-cutoff POC: +0.0019 (▲ +0.00%)

What's Changed?

• Open Interest — 6,764,990 (▼ -166,583 WoW)
• Asset Managers — 2,994,879 long / 955,333 short → +2,039,546 net (30.2% of OI)
• Net ▼ reduced by 9,339 contracts
• Leveraged Funds — 349,848 long / 2,296,320 short → -1,946,472 net (-28.7% of OI)
• Net ▲ increased by 14,783 contracts
• Swap Dealers — 347,671 long / 579,013 short → -231,342 net (-3.5% of OI)
• Net ▼ reduced by 71,854 contracts
• Other Reportables — 275,061 long / 173,485 short → +101,576 net (1.5% of OI)
• Net ▲ increased by 63,508 contracts

Positioning Summary

• Asset Managers reduced net exposure during the reporting week.
• Leveraged Funds increased long exposure, supporting upside participation.
• Dealer Intermediaries reduced inventory, signaling balance sheet contraction.
• Open interest declined, indicating net risk reduction rather than expansion.

Risk Flags

• Institutional exposure was reduced during a sharp price decline, suggesting de-risking rather than accumulation.
• Post-cutoff trading accepted lower prices than the COT inventory range.
• Dealer inventory contraction suggests reduced liquidity support.