UST 2Y NOTE COT Report

Neutral – Lower Value Being Tested

Price and institutional positioning are not aligned.

Price Action

• Current Week (2026-03-03 → 2026-03-10): ▼ -0.13%
• Previous Week (2026-02-24 → 2026-03-03): ▼ -0.09%
• Pre-cutoff POC (2026-03-03 → 2026-03-10): 104.22
• Post-cutoff POC (2026-03-10 → 2026-03-13): 103.9
• Friday 3PM price (2026-03-13): ▼ 103.8945
• Friday vs Post-cutoff POC: -0.0055 (▼ -0.01%)

What's Changed?

• Open Interest — 4,983,990 (▲ +223,280 WoW)
• Asset Managers — 2,611,013 long / 514,315 short → +2,096,698 net (42.1% of OI)
• Net ▲ increased by 26,579 contracts
• Leveraged Funds — 400,588 long / 2,378,165 short → -1,977,577 net (-39.7% of OI)
• Net ▲ increased by 97,490 contracts
• Swap Dealers — 100,401 long / 563,876 short → -463,475 net (-9.3% of OI)
• Net ▼ reduced by 142,903 contracts
• Other Reportables — 418,512 long / 184,143 short → +234,369 net (4.7% of OI)
• Net ▲ increased by 16,749 contracts

Positioning Summary

• Asset Managers increased net exposure during the reporting week.
• Leveraged Fund activity was heavily skewed toward spreading, muting the directional signal from net positioning.
• Dealer spreading increased, indicating active internal hedging amid elevated trade flow.
• Open interest increased, indicating expanding market participation.

Risk Flags

• Post-cutoff trading accepted lower prices than the COT inventory range.